Hedge

A hedge is a second bet placed on the opposite side of an open bet, sized so that you guarantee a profit (or cap a loss) no matter which outcome wins. Hedging trades upside for certainty.

When you’d hedge

Most hedges happen on bets that have already moved in your favor — the original ticket has live value, the opposite outcome is now priced very short, and you’d rather lock in profit than ride the variance.

Common cases:

• Your futures ticket is one game away from cashing
• A long parlay has cleared every leg except the last
• A heavy underdog you bet has become the live favorite

The math

Convert both sides to decimal odds. The hedge stake that locks equal profit on either outcome is:

hedge = (original stake × original decimal odds) / hedge decimal odds

Example: you bet $100 on a +500 futures (decimal 6.00). Your team made the final, where the live opposite-side line is now -250 (decimal 1.40).

hedge = (100 × 6.00) / 1.40 = $428.57

If your original wins: payout $600 − total stake $528.57 = $71.43 profit. If the hedge wins: payout $428.57 × 1.40 = $600 − $528.57 = $71.43 profit.

Locked equal either way.

Partial hedges

You can hedge less than the equal-profit amount to keep upside if your original bet wins. Stake more to over-hedge in favor of the new line. The “right” amount depends on your edge and your appetite for variance.

When the math turns negative

Sometimes hedging at the current line costs more than your original edge — the locked-equal stake produces a loss, not a profit. In that case the calculator is showing you the smallest possible loss, not a profit lock. Often the right move is to let the bet ride, or hedge only partially.