Moneyline

The moneyline is the simplest bet in sports: just pick who wins. No points, no spread, no math beyond the odds. It’s also where the term moneyline odds comes from — the +/- format used by US sportsbooks (also called American odds) is the price on a moneyline bet.

How it works

If the Lakers are heavy favorites against the Hornets, the moneyline might be:

• Lakers -350 — bet $350 to win $100. The book thinks the Lakers win ~78% of the time.
• Hornets +280 — bet $100 to win $280. The book thinks the Hornets win ~26% of the time.

Add those implied probabilities — 78% + 26% = 104% — and the 4% over 100% is the vig.

When to bet the moneyline vs the spread

• Take the moneyline when you think a favorite wins outright but might not cover the spread (e.g., a team that wins ugly games).
• Take the spread when you think the favorite blows a team out, or you want better odds on a slight underdog.
• Take the moneyline on a dog when you think the underdog has live winning equity that the spread doesn’t fully reward.

Heavy favorites and dog longshots

Moneylines on heavy favorites get expensive fast. Betting -1000 (“ten-to-one favorite”) means risking $1,000 to win $100. One upset wipes out 10 wins.

Moneylines on dog longshots are the inverse: +1500 pays $1,500 on a $100 bet, but you’ll lose 14 of 15 attempts on average. Casual bettors over-bet longshots because the payout looks tantalizing — the implied probability (~6%) is what you should care about, not the dollar figure.

In parlays

Moneyline parlays multiply implied probabilities. A 3-leg moneyline parlay where each favorite is -200 (decimal 1.50, implied 66.7%) cashes only 66.7%³ = 29.6% of the time — even though each leg looks like a near-lock. This is why parlays of “obvious favorites” lose more than people expect.