Spread

The spread (or point spread) is a handicap the sportsbook applies to a game’s expected margin so that both sides of the bet are roughly equally likely to cash. It’s how books turn lopsided games (a heavy favorite vs an underdog) into a coin-flip-priced bet.

How spreads work

If the Patriots are 7-point favorites against the Jets, the spread is written Patriots -7 (or Jets +7). To win a bet on the Patriots, they have to win by more than 7 points. To win a bet on the Jets, they have to either win outright or lose by fewer than 7 points.

If the Patriots win by exactly 7, it’s a push — your stake is refunded.

The standard price

Spread bets are typically priced at -110 on both sides (decimal 1.91, implied probability 52.4% each). The 4.8% gap above 100% is the vig — the book’s margin.

Why beating the spread is hard

You’re not just predicting who wins. You’re predicting whether the margin clears the spread. A team that wins 14-13 in a 7-point spread game loses ATS (against the spread) for anyone betting on it as a -7 favorite.

Sharp bettors talk in terms of closing line value (CLV): did you bet the spread before it moved against you? If you bet Patriots -6 and the line closed at -7, your bet has +1 of CLV — usually a sign of +EV play.

Half-points and key numbers

Spreads use half-points (-6.5, -7.5) to eliminate pushes. Key numbers are common margins of victory in a sport — in NFL, 3 and 7 are the biggest. Buying a half-point across a key number (going from -6.5 to -7) is more expensive than buying a half across a non-key number.

Spreads in parlays

Spread bets multiply into parlays the same as any other -110 leg. Three-team teasers move all spreads in the bettor’s favor at the cost of payout — it’s not the same as a parlay. See teaser for that mechanic.